How It Works
Here's exactly how we decide BUY, HOLD, SELL, and WATCH — every step, nothing hidden. Free to browse the leaderboard first: no account required →
1 · The Daily Radar Sweep
Every athlete on the platform gets a fresh signal once a day (6 AM UTC). High-tier athletes and athletes whose teams just finished a game get rescored within 30 minutes of the final whistle.
2 · What BUY / HOLD / SELL / WATCH Actually Means
These aren't arbitrary labels. Each one has a specific real-world meaning tied to price trajectory and market timing.
AI projects meaningful price upside in the next 30 days. A catalyst (injury to a competitor, stat breakout, playoff run) is creating demand the market hasn't fully priced in yet. Best entry window is now.
Negative catalyst detected or recent BUY peak has passed. Historical outcomes show cards held through SELL signals lose value more often than not. Exit or reduce exposure.
No strong signal in either direction. Either the AI is uncertain, the athlete is stable, or the confidence score was too low to issue a directional call. Don't buy more; don't sell either.
A blip on the radar — something's developing but the skeptic disagreed with the primary call. Monitor closely. This athlete may move to BUY or SELL within days. Good for prospect collectors building a watchlist.
3 · Grade-Specific Pricing
Raw and graded cards trade in separate markets. A PSA 10 can command 5–20× the price of a raw copy of the same card. We track each market independently.
| Grade | What it means | Price relationship |
|---|---|---|
| Raw | Ungraded. Condition unknown until you hold it. | Baseline comp price |
| PSA 8 | Excellent. Light surface wear, sharp corners. | 1.5–3× raw |
| PSA 9 | Mint. Tiny imperfections only under scrutiny. | 3–8× raw |
| PSA 10 | Gem Mint. Perfect centering, no wear. | 5–20× raw |
The card comps section on each athlete page breaks prices down by grade using recent eBay sold listings. The AI's best entry card recommendation specifies a grade so you're comparing the right market.
4 · Accuracy Measurement & Self-Improvement
Every signal is evaluated 30 days after it's issued. If a BUY signal was followed by price appreciation, it's marked CORRECT. If the price declined, INCORRECT. Mixed outcomes get MIXED.
These evaluations feed two things:
1. The live accuracy page — you can see overall accuracy, accuracy by signal type (BUY vs SELL vs HOLD), and for Investor subscribers, accuracy broken down by sport, athlete tier, and 30/60/90-day windows. View live accuracy →
2. Calibration notes — when a sport or signal type shows accuracy dipping below threshold, calibration context is injected into the next AI run. The model self-corrects by learning from recent misfires.
5 · What We Don't Do
- ✕Real-time tick data. Signals update daily (or post-game). We are not a live price feed. eBay comps are sourced from recent sold listings, not real-time BIN prices.
- ✕Financial advice. Hobby Heat Index is a hobbyist tool. Nothing here constitutes investment advice. Don't risk money you can't afford to lose on card speculation.
- ✕Prediction markets or guarantees. The AI is right more often than not — check the accuracy page — but no signal is certain. Market conditions, injuries, and news can change within hours.
- ✕Population manipulation. PSA pop data is pulled from the public PSA API. We don't adjust, filter, or inflate it.
- ✕Paying for better signals. All signals use the same pipeline regardless of tier. Paid tiers unlock deeper analytics (accuracy drill-down, portfolio tracking) — not better base signals.
See the radar live
The full leaderboard is free — no account, no credit card. Today's signals are already in.
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